En este blog ya profundizamos en la razón de ser del tan temido efecto 2000, la amenaza del colapso tecnológico que aterrorizó al mundo en 1999. Haciendo memoria al respecto, se trataba de un fallo que podría haber provocado que los sistemas informáticos pasasen del 31 de diciembre de 1999 al 1 de enero de 1900, en vez de 2000. Debido a la codificación del año en dos dígitos (00). Pues bien, habiendo superado aquel desafío, ahora nos acercamos a uno nuevo. El efecto 2038.
En qué consiste el efecto 2038
El efecto 2038 está relacionado con la codificación del tiempo en los relojes de los sistemas de 32 bits. Toma el nombre del año en que tendría lugar el posible bug informático que nos afectaría a todos y se explica del siguiente modo.
El reloj de la mayoría de los equipos se basa en un tipo de interfaz estándar (POSIX) que mide el paso del tiempo contando los segundos en ascenso con fecha de referencia de 1 de enero de 1970 a las 00:00:00. Lo que se conoce como Tiempo Unix. Esta fecha se decidió arbitrariamente ese mismo año cuando se desarrolló el primer sistema operativo para máquinas Unix. De esta manera, el tiempo es igual al número de segundos transcurridos desde entonces.
Tratándose de un sistema de 32 bits, que codifica el tiempo con un número entero de 32 bits y un signo, llegará un punto en el que el contador alcance el número máximo posible de almacenar en positivo. Que es 2,147,483,647 y se traduce en el 19 de enero de 2038. Al llegar a este número, el sistema comenzará a contar en negativo. El último segundo representable con este formato será exactamente a las 03:14:07 UTC de tal día. Un segundo después, el contador saltará a un valor negativo que provocará que los programas interpreten la fecha en 1901 en vez de 2038.
A su vez, esto causaría errores en procesamientos y sistemas que resultarían en un problema de escala mundial.
Las posibles consecuencias de este «nuevo colapso»
Hasta ahora no es posible determinar cuáles serían las consecuencias de este nuevo colapso informático. Pero el hecho de que sea demasiado pronto para saberlo significa también de que estamos a tiempo de investigar cómo evitarlo. Y evitar así también el pánico generalizado que sucedió en 1999.
Por lo pronto y debido a la causa del problema, el efecto 2038 afectaría al mencionado sistema operativo Unix, directamente vinculado con la interfaz POSIX. Unix es la base de Android y iOS, de muchos servidores de Internet y puntos de acceso Wi-Fi.
De hecho, debido a esta mecánica, algunos dispositivos Android se reinician al Tiempo Unix si se les retira la batería por unos instantes y no tienen actualizaciones automáticas.
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