Pocas veces en la historia moderna se registró un temor generalizado en todo el planeta por algún fenómeno o situación inesperada. La transición del 31 de diciembre de 1999 al 1 de enero del año 2000 estuvo marcada por la expectación internacional ante un posible colapso. Se sospechaba de un evento catastrófico, una sucesión de cataclismos que, sin saber exactamente de qué podría tratarse, mantuvo a buena parte de la población alerta y preocupada por un inminente fin del mundo. La caída de los sistemas financieros, apagón energético general, bloqueo de sistemas de comunicación y transporte… Lo que se conoce como el efecto 2000, Y2K (year two thousand), o error del milenio. Un error de software múltiple que efectivamente sí pudo haber supuesto una amenaza a todos los niveles, pero que finalmente no sucedió.
Muchos recordarán el clima de tensión y miedo poco antes del cambio de milenio. Llegando casi a la histeria colectiva en algunos lugares y con las típicas reacciones ante el posible apocalipsis que vemos casi cada año, los últimos meses de los 90 fueron un auténtico torbellino de especulación, agitación y alboroto. Los más escépticos probablemente veían a los temerosos como unos fanáticos de la conspiración y de las teorías huecas. Pero lo cierto es que lejos de ser un mito desproporcionado, el supuesto caos tecnológico del efecto 2000 comenzó a preverse desde los años 60.
La verdadera amenaza del efecto 2000
El origen de todos los miedos hacia el efecto 2000 podría parecernos hoy, con nuestro punto de vista digitalizado, una nimiedad sin importancia. Pero hace varias décadas obligó al sector de la informática a reconsiderar muchos de los paradigmas hasta el momento bien establecidos.
Como cualquier industria en desarrollo, la informática de entonces, hablamos de los años 60 y 70, era muy precaria en comparación a lo que es hoy. Los ordenadores tenían capacidad muy limitada en cuanto a memoria y almacenamiento, además de ser extremadamente caros. Esas dificultades provocaban que los informáticos buscasen la mayor optimización del espacio disponible a la hora de generar programas y diseñar sistemas de todo tipo. Una forma de conseguirlo era abreviando las fechas ahorrando dígitos, pasando del formato dd/mm/aaaa a dd/mm/aa.
Esta práctica es más que habitual también actualmente, pero teniendo en cuenta el cambio de 1999 a 2000, el software de aquel momento estaría registrando un cambio de 99 a 00, lo que podría perfectamente interpretar como 1900. Esta posibilidad tan simple, en realidad podría haber supuesto muchos problemas. Los ordenadores y dispositivos de entonces no sabrían en qué año estarían y podrían empezar a fallar.
Durante décadas, esta situación plausible fue ignorada hasta la entrada de los años 90. Muchos informáticos de la época comenzaron a ser conscientes de las posibilidades y a advertir acerca de todo ello. Se consideraron fallos que realmente sí supondrían graves problemas en general: desajustes en sistemas de instalación de alta seguridad como centrales nucleares, hospitales, comunicaciones, departamentos gubernamentales, defensa, generadores y proveedores de energía, transporte, etc. El alcance de los errores de software alcanzaría también a todos los sistemas de administración generales del tejido empresarial, procesos de pagos, cobros y todo el modelo financiero.

Las actualizaciones informáticas que previeron el Y2K
Puede que por una vez en la historia, el miedo ante la posible crisis hubiera jugado un papel crucial para la anticipación y la prevención a tiempo. Ante los temores al cataclismo, muchas instituciones bancarias, aseguradoras, administraciones, operadoras, productoras, fabricantes y compañías todo tipo comenzaron a revisar sus sistemas informáticos, sus bases de datos, sus procedimientos digitales y sus archivos en general. En Europa se estaba trabajando además en el cambio de moneda hacia el Euro. Lo que también facilitó este trabajo de actualización en todas las áreas.
La inversión para realizar las adecuaciones necesarias en todo el mundo fue colosal, superior a los doscientos mil millones de euros. La modernización del software internacional implicó el diseño y desarrollo de programas de inventariado y bases de datos de grandísimo volumen. Para garantizar que todo continuaría funcionando correctamente.
El efecto 2000 que finalmente nunca sucedió
Después de la operación masiva, finalmente no sucedió nada al cambio de año y milenio. Aunque el temor persistió durante varios días por la evidente dependencia de unos sistemas en otros y el desconocimiento de si todo se había mantenido bajo control.
La atención de todo el mundo se enfocaba en los primeros países en entrar en el año 2000, Nueva Zelanda, Australia y Japón. Y después de esperar con la mayor expectación posible, todo fluyó con normalidad.
Alrededor de todo el mundo se analizaron las consecuencias posibles al cambio y se registraron algunas anomalías y problemas leves que no significaron mucho. Algunas máquinas de servicio público quedaron fuera de funcionamiento, se reportaron errores mínimos en algunas centrales nucleares, se emitieron facturas y documentos con fecha errónea, elementos de tráfico fallaron…, pero sin mayor trascendencia. Al menos en comparación con lo que pudiera haber sido.
Después de todo y pese a que mucha gente recuerda al efecto 2000 como un mito o una conspiración fallida, sí existió el riesgo y el peligro. Fue la previsión internacional la que permitió que todo hubiera quedado en un simple susto, o en una teoría descabellada. La gran dependencia que la sociedad actual tiene en la tecnología la vuelve tan vulnerable que hasta un cambio de fecha puede ser fatal. Son los costes a pagar por la evolución y el desarrollo. Algo de lo que probablemente no estaremos exentos nunca.
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21 diciembre, 2022 a las 19:01
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22 noviembre, 2022 a las 11:14
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